This is the first in a series of articles which respond to the General Election from different perspectives
15.06.10
The election of David Davies, the anti-devolution Conservative MP for Monmouth, as chairman of the Welsh affairs select committee at Westminster suggests that Wales may feature more prominently on the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition’s agenda than some might suppose. Although Davies has pledged not to press his devosceptic views as committee chairman (see this article in the South Wales Argus), the appointment makes him influential in the run up to a referendum on increasing the Assembly’s powers – which David Cameron has confirmed will be held in 2011 – and creates the potential for conflict with pro-devolution Assembly Tories led by Nick Bourne. Ribble Valley MP Nigel Evans, long a sceptic of devolution, is already emerging as a leading critic of the coalition which suggests something of a Salon des Refusés air to certain shades of Welsh Tory opinion. Wales traditionally has minimal influence on Tory politics or ideology; but this parliament could see Wales have the most influence on Westminister politics since the Labour administrations of 1974 to 1979 when the original proposals for devolution were formulated, and when the negative outcome of the referendum prefaced the fall of the government.
This is because the biggest challenge to the viability of the Con-Lib Dem coalition is arguably constitutional reform – even more so than the economy where the two governing parties at least agree on the need for drastic limitations on public spending. The flexibility of the modern British economy means that spending cuts probably won’t put the same strains on the fabric of society as seen in the Thatcher years and so will not cause acute ideological embarrassment for the Lib Dems. But the Lib Dems simply have to have voting reform to justify their involvement in the coalition – something Tory backbenchers are pathologically opposed to, as it effectively means the end of any prospect of a right wing Tory government ever taking power on its own at Westminster. Instead, it will ensure the hold of Cameron-style moderates over the party for the long term. So the referendum to extend more powers to the Assembly will be a key test of the Westminster Tories’ attitude towards constitutional reform and their ability to deliver, if Wales votes for more powers. It is difficult to see how the Con-Lib coalition could manage to pass the alternative vote after an affirmative referendum if Tory backbenchers were able to block greater powers for the Assembly.
The Welsh Assembly will also now enjoy greater stature in British politics as the only place where Labour currently has a foothold in government beyond the local level. First Minister Carwyn Jones is Labour’s most senior office holder in government. Labour tends to go native after defeats, and Jones is arguably a more credible embodiment of Labour values than New Labour figures like David Miliband and Ed Balls who are suddenly finding ideological distance from the Blair and Brown eras with which they were so closely associated.
But Conservatives in the Assembly can also exercise a significant political influence on David Cameron’s government – much more so than if a Tory majority government held power – because the compromises required by coalition mean that traditional Tory values designed to appease backbench and grassroots opinion have to be diluted. What Cameron has done by going into coalition with the Lib Dems is effectively stage a counter-coup against the backbench and grassroots opinion which has governed the party since the "Peasant’s Revolt" of 1975 made Margaret Thatcher leader. The officer class is back in control of the party, but the leadership desperately needs legitimacy for its brand of pragmatic, gradual and reform-minded Conservatism. Nick Bourne’s advocacy of a rainbow coalition after the last Assembly elections establishes that coalition is not an inherent aberration from recent Tory tradition. That coalition bid failed; but the concept arguably raised the prestige and influence of the Tories in Wales. It is also a less controversial precedent than 1974 when the Tories under Edward Heath – deprived of their majority at the February election – tried and failed to form a centrist coalition with the Liberals, something that helped ignite the revolt that created Thatcherism.
Cameron’s brand of Conservatism also lacks ideological weight. The failure of the "Big Society" theme to win over voters has been deftly analysed by Tory blogger Tim Montgomerie in his post-election review of the Tory campaign. The only thinker closely associated with Cameron has been Phillip Blond, whose advocacy of communitarianism, greater local democracy and the co-operative model as solutions to the problems of modern society is outlined in his book Red Tory. It is perhaps a reflection of the self-absorption and inwardness of the Westminster political and media class that Tory Assembly member David Melding’s groundbreaking work on constitutional reform and advocacy of a federal Britain has received little attention outside Wales. The Assembly Tories then can offer Cameron both an alibi for coalition and some much-needed ideological ballast – especially when it comes to constitutional reform.
Coalition at Westminster inevitably raises the question of whether the Tories and Lib Dems might seek to co-operate after the next Assembly elections should they be in a position to form an administration. We can expect the parties to fight shy of coalition talk in Cardiff Bay just as we can expect Labour and Plaid Cymru to talk up the prospects of such a deal. Labour’s presence in government in Cardiff Bay also makes Wales a centre of opposition to the Tory-led Westminster coalition. Whatever the outcome, we can be certain that Wales will have a significant influence on Tory and Westminster politics in the next few years.
Iain Lewis